When will the new round of insufficient supply of medicinal foil end?

Beginning in October 2021, the supply and demand of domestic medicinal aluminum foil raw materials has undergone a huge reversal. The number of domestic suppliers willing to provide medicinal foil raw material aluminum supply has dropped sharply, while the order volume of domestic and foreign medicinal aluminum foil has continued to rise. , What is the reason for this in the middle? How long will this state continue? Let's discuss it together today.

First of all, let us understand the basic information of the raw material aluminum of medicinal aluminum foil. The raw material used to make medicinal aluminum foil is 8011-H aluminum foil, or 18-state aluminum foil for short. This is a single zero aluminum. As the raw material of medical grade aluminum foil, the processing cost of single zero foil is 1.5 to 2 times that of normal industrial grade and household grade. Looking further upstream, the source of single-zero foil forging is hot-rolled blanks. Forging with the same hot-rolled blanks, single-zero foils and double-zero foils can be produced.

So what is the main reason for the decrease in the supply of medicinal foil raw materials? Let's analyze it from these aspects.

1. The upstream supply of aluminum foil is reduced.

There are many processes in the upstream of aluminum foil, but the most source is the processing of aluminum ingots and electrolytic aluminum. These processes are very power-consuming and polluting. From the second half of this year, the state has begun to control the power supply of enterprises, and put forward energy-saving and production-reduction requirements for production-oriented enterprises that consume large amounts of electricity. The production start-up time has been shortened from 6-7 days a week to 3-4 days a week, and production capacity has been severely strained.

Later, the Beijing Winter Olympics required a "blue sky and white clouds" ecological environment, which also had a partial impact on the aluminum processing industry in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and its surrounding areas.

The reduction of upstream capacity shifts the pressure to downstream.

2. The rise of the market for emerging products.

As we mentioned earlier, the same hot-rolled billet can produce single zero foil and double zero foil. In addition to medicinal foil, single zero foil has added a new product called battery foil. Battery foils are mainly used in new energy industries, such as electric vehicles. In the past two years, due to strong government support and financial subsidies, the new energy industry has developed rapidly. Last year’s battery foil market demand was 70,000 tons, which has doubled to 140,000 tons as of November this year. Next year’s estimate is 300,000 to 400,000 tons. The processing cost of battery foil is twice that of medicated foil. Under the same demand, battery foil will become the supplier's first choice.

The other is the double zero foil. The double zero foil is mainly used for the production and processing of composite films, such as puffed food packaging bags, pharmaceutical pellet packaging bags, etc., which are widely used in the double zero foil market. The continuous recurrence of foreign epidemics has caused a large number of foreign double zero foil orders to enter the Chinese market, further squeezing the supply capacity of single zero foil medicinal foil.

The demand on the supply side has decreased, and the demand for medical foil raw materials has continued to rise, which has caused great changes and contrasts between supply and demand. According to the conclusions drawn by several well-known companies in the aluminum processing industry that we visited in mid-December This trend will not change in the past 1-2 years, and the production of medicinal foil will not return to the same delivery state in the short term.